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How serious is the US debt problem and do you think the US health care system will crumble in catastrophic fashion some time in the future?

And for countries whose economy is heavily dependent on tourism, like Thailand, is that a bad thing long-term economically?

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#3 Thailand used to make a lot of money through tourism before covid struck. It definitely affects their export revenues and balance of payments. Luckily Thailand isn't completely dependent on tourism and has a huge assortment of things to export. But covid was definitely a "shock"

https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=216&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2019&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined

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#1

It's not a problem yet but it could be if spending doesn't get cut, gov revenue doesn't increase (either thru higher gdp growth to extract more tax revenue or just through higher tax rates), or if interest rates don't decrease

In 2023, interest payments were $660B , gov revenue collected $4.4T in 2023. So interest payments is 15% of governemnt revenue. America still has a lot of wiggle room. But ideally we wouldn't want so much of tax payer dollars just to go on just paying interest payments on debt.

In 2024, interest payments is expected to exceed defense spending at $870B. 2024 gov revenue is expected to be $4.9T which is almost 18%.Eventually levers need to be pulled but this won't bankrupt us in 10 years.

Source for interest payments:

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/2023-interest-costs-reach-659-billion#:~:text=Newly%20issued%20three%2Dmonth%20Treasury,Security%2C%20Medicare%2C%20and%20defense.

Source for gov revenue

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59730#:~:text=Revenues%20received%20by%20the%20federal,receipts%20from%20individual%20income%20taxes.

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#2

What do you mean by "US Healthcare system will crumble "

As in no one will have health insurance? As in no more doctors? As in Medicare won't exist? There are so many levers to the US Healthcare system and "crumble" is so broad a phrase it is really difficult to answer that question.

Right now 92% of Americans have health insurance

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-281.html#:~:text=In%202022%2C%2092.1%20percent%20of,91.7%20percent%20or%20300.9%20million).

If you are poor you are on medicaid, over 65 have Medicare, vets have VA, government workers have some government plan, and then the rest get their own or an employer gets s aplan for you.

Medicaid and Medicare combined is $1.4T or 32% of government revenue which is huge.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59727

If Medicare negotiated drug prices, with monopsony buying power, the government could bring drug prices down, which would lower government spending since drugs a portion of why spending is so high.

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Like the pension system relying on continued population growth.

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structurally its screwed but raising FICA taxes, lifting the cap, and increasing immigration rates can stall for some time.

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So will there be similar pension protests to the recent one in France some time in the future?

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