Well in terms of income rwanda isnt really anywhere near the top of sub saharan africa. Everyone just looks at Kigali and think the whole country is that when 13% of the population lives there.
~70% of the population are subsistence farmers. As a result, rwandan average incomes are very low:
Some of these take a grain of salt since some countries dont know their population at all, but rwanda does.
Over the past 10 years, rwanda went from $720 per person to $1040 per person. 3.7% growth per year. Assuming they stay at that growth rate for 30 years (1040* 1.037^30) then Rwanda will hit $3093, which would be better than most of Sub Saharan Africa but still less than Eswatini or South Africa.
Rwanda makes its foreign currency through stealing Congolese minerals, tourism, and cash crops. Its not really becoming "industrialized" with manufacturing clusters with semiconductor chips, car manufacturing, or even selling t-shirts.
You cant project growth 30 years later for african countries because a lot of them depend on commodities to grow (oil for nigeria, copper for Zambia, gold, oil, & cocoa for ghana ) and stagnate hard during commodity busts.
The only country you can predict is when a country has diversified away from depending on commodities for FX. In that sense, none of sub-saharan africa has predictable growth rates for 30 years tbh.
Most need to complete the step morocco did and diversify from a monoexport. Morocco used to only export phosphorous and now it exports wires, cables, cars, aerospace sparts, and textiles, and still phosphorous
At face value, trade data suggests Rwanda exported nearly $48 million worth of “planes, helicopters, and/or spacecraft” to Poland. That interpretation is almost certainly wrong. When ever you see trade data, don't always take it at face value, think "what company sells that?"
Trade statistics record legal ownership transfers and customs declarations, not necessarily domestic manufacturing. As a result, re-exports, leased asset returns, and trans-shipment flows are often misread as production exports.
For example, if you looked at Liberia’s trade data, it would show that Liberia is “exporting ships.” In reality, Liberia operates a flag-of-convenience registry; the vessels are neither built nor owned there in any meaningful economic sense. Or you would think Malaysia actually sells so much crude oil or refined petrol to China, when in reality, much of that is from Iranian shadow fleets. (And if you looked at Iranian trade data (https://oec.world/en/profile/country/irn), you wouldn't see any oil exports, when everyone knows Iran skirts sanctions by selling crude oil to China and India).
In Rwanda’s case, there is no aircraft manufacturing base. Rwanda doesn't have a plane, helicopter, or spacecraft factory capable of producing exports at this scale. The Poland figure almost certainly reflects a leased or used aircraft transfer, re-export, or accounting transaction rather than a merchandise export from a Rwandan manufacturer.
If I had to speculate, RwandAir operates leased Boeing aircraft, and the recorded value aligns closely with the resale or return value of a used Boeing 737-class aircraft. A lease termination or asset transfer recorded in 2024 would appear in trade data as an “aircraft export,” even though no aircraft was produced in Rwanda.
Here's my series on Rwanda if you haven't seen it yet:
So, assuming Rwanda remains on its current path, do you see them becoming industrialised in the next 30 years? Maybe they might even carve up a chunk of the DRC to make their size more "reasonable".
Well in terms of income rwanda isnt really anywhere near the top of sub saharan africa. Everyone just looks at Kigali and think the whole country is that when 13% of the population lives there.
~70% of the population are subsistence farmers. As a result, rwandan average incomes are very low:
See here for sub saharan incomes per person:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD?locations=ZG
Some of these take a grain of salt since some countries dont know their population at all, but rwanda does.
Over the past 10 years, rwanda went from $720 per person to $1040 per person. 3.7% growth per year. Assuming they stay at that growth rate for 30 years (1040* 1.037^30) then Rwanda will hit $3093, which would be better than most of Sub Saharan Africa but still less than Eswatini or South Africa.
Rwanda makes its foreign currency through stealing Congolese minerals, tourism, and cash crops. Its not really becoming "industrialized" with manufacturing clusters with semiconductor chips, car manufacturing, or even selling t-shirts.
"But anyone back then in the 1970s could tell you that South Korea was going to surpass Ghana eventually."
Really? Which subsahran African country is currently on track becoming developed/industrialised in 30 years?
You cant project growth 30 years later for african countries because a lot of them depend on commodities to grow (oil for nigeria, copper for Zambia, gold, oil, & cocoa for ghana ) and stagnate hard during commodity busts.
The only country you can predict is when a country has diversified away from depending on commodities for FX. In that sense, none of sub-saharan africa has predictable growth rates for 30 years tbh.
Most need to complete the step morocco did and diversify from a monoexport. Morocco used to only export phosphorous and now it exports wires, cables, cars, aerospace sparts, and textiles, and still phosphorous
Hmmmm. What of Rwanda? I just checked and Rwanda doesn't seem to have a mono export...
I can't share pictures here. I'm seeing that they export "Planes, Helicopters and/or Spacecraft". That's crazy.
Yea I saw that, it's a bit misleading.
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rwa
At face value, trade data suggests Rwanda exported nearly $48 million worth of “planes, helicopters, and/or spacecraft” to Poland. That interpretation is almost certainly wrong. When ever you see trade data, don't always take it at face value, think "what company sells that?"
Trade statistics record legal ownership transfers and customs declarations, not necessarily domestic manufacturing. As a result, re-exports, leased asset returns, and trans-shipment flows are often misread as production exports.
For example, if you looked at Liberia’s trade data, it would show that Liberia is “exporting ships.” In reality, Liberia operates a flag-of-convenience registry; the vessels are neither built nor owned there in any meaningful economic sense. Or you would think Malaysia actually sells so much crude oil or refined petrol to China, when in reality, much of that is from Iranian shadow fleets. (And if you looked at Iranian trade data (https://oec.world/en/profile/country/irn), you wouldn't see any oil exports, when everyone knows Iran skirts sanctions by selling crude oil to China and India).
In Rwanda’s case, there is no aircraft manufacturing base. Rwanda doesn't have a plane, helicopter, or spacecraft factory capable of producing exports at this scale. The Poland figure almost certainly reflects a leased or used aircraft transfer, re-export, or accounting transaction rather than a merchandise export from a Rwandan manufacturer.
If I had to speculate, RwandAir operates leased Boeing aircraft, and the recorded value aligns closely with the resale or return value of a used Boeing 737-class aircraft. A lease termination or asset transfer recorded in 2024 would appear in trade data as an “aircraft export,” even though no aircraft was produced in Rwanda.
Here's my series on Rwanda if you haven't seen it yet:
https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/the-economic-and-geopolitical-history-4cf
So, assuming Rwanda remains on its current path, do you see them becoming industrialised in the next 30 years? Maybe they might even carve up a chunk of the DRC to make their size more "reasonable".
I do agree with you that they will effectly take eastern congo. Or rather I would say they have controlled eastern congo since the 90s