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Really interesting piece! Honestly seems like the US should have invaded Sudan instead of Iraq in 2003 - that could’ve at least averted some of the problems in South Sudan and Darfur. Then again, knowing the US, it probably would have found some other way to mess things up there instead.

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I wouldn't have invaded Sudan or Iraq lol.

We have no idea how much worse things would have gotten with an invasion.

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Depends on how well planned and executed it was. What was Sudanese opinion of Al-Bashir at the time? From what I can gather, the Iraq invasion benefitted from the Iraqis being fairly pro-US, so while they didn’t necessarily have a coherent plan to begin with, had they not screwed up by abolishing the Iraqi army and instead potentially have split the country into more reasonable borders, things could still have turned out okay. Assuming Sudanese opinion was positive enough to the US, it could have potentially done the same thing, taking out the government to general approval and then overseeing with peacekeepers the potential split of Sudan into two or three separate states, this time without the conflict.

Another option would have been the UK - they wouldn’t have the capacity for a full invasion so would have needed full UN backing and support, but have both the historical connections and also a much better track record for interventions re Sierra Leone and DFID, so there would likely be a much more successful post operation reconstruction. Then again, depending on if colonial grievances still persist, that could have screwed up the public opinion side and made the whole thing a screwup similar to the Afghanistan withdrawal etc. Are you aware of what Sudanese public opinion is on either country (or indeed third options like India etc)?

It’s certainly a tough one, but for all the problems with Iraq, it’s still in better shape than Sudan is now, and some of the lessons learned from a Sudanese intervention could potentially have been applied.

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Nah it would have been a disaster. Sudanese didn't like Al-Bashir and supported the coup in 2019, but the idea of a western power, especially a former colonizer coming back to "liberate Sudan" would be a no-go.

They would think America would be there to steal Sudanese gold or farm land. While many Iraqis supported removing Saddam, the occupation became unpopular due to poor planning, lack of understanding lcoal dynamics, and the devasting impacts of de-Baathification.

America would have no clue of what to do in Sudan. Occupation doesn't work when the society is unindustrialized.

That's why occupation of Japan and Germany post WW2 was successful while occupying Iraq or Afghanistan were not.

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Really enjoyed this! very illuminating

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You are welcome! 🙏

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