Very excited about the article on Uganda! The country has consistently been punching above its weight, and I am surprised that it is richer than Rwanda on a per-capita basis across most metrics, would like to hear how they pulled it off
Its the North Arab Sudanese Domination Period. Israel's Periphery Doctrine reminded me of The United States Containment Doctrine which led to the Korean War as Periphery seemed to fuel the Massacres in Jubit Torit Yei et al. It's probably not similar, Sudan is far larger and more ethnically diverse than Korea, it was just one of those things. Thanks for making me read more into it!
Though, I'm curious, what do you think is the path forward for Sudan? Is it centralization under the Petro State? Or do you think it could be managed more equitably by a decentralization and total regional apparati? I don't know, being ignorant of World History. Is cohesion the true solution, is that what Sudanese want?
Did you mean to ask, "What do you think the path forward is for South Sudan?" That’s an important distinction because Sudan doesn’t have much oil left after South Sudan gained independence and took most of the oil reserves with it.
For now, Sudan’s top priority is ending its civil war, while South Sudan is facing its own challenge: making it through the December 2024 elections without major violence.
Even if South Sudan stabilizes, it doesn't export a huge amount of oil relative to its population. A good way to gauge how much oil a country really benefits from is to look at oil and gas exports per capita. Why? Take China as an example: China has the 14th largest oil reserves in the world, about the same as Qatar. But China has 1.4 billion people, which means it uses far more oil than it can produce from all its consumers and businesses, despite having a significant supply. Meanwhile, Qatar, with its small population, has massive oil surpluses because it produces much more than it can consume.
Let’s assume South Sudan fixes its pipelines and gets back to its peak oil production from 2014. Here's how South Sudan compares to other oil-exporting nations based on 2022 data:
Qatar: $87B/ 2.7M = $32.5K per person
Saudi Arabia: $242B/ 36 M = $6.8K per person
Angola: $39.4B/35.6 = $1.1K per person
South Sudan: $4.4B/11M = $400 bucks per person
Nigeria: 61B/ 220M = $277 bucks per person
Of course, this doesn’t mean each person directly gets this money. It typically goes to the treasury, central bank, or sovereign wealth funds, as these countries usually have state-run oil companies. But it gives a good sense of how well-endowed each country is in terms of oil wealth.
As you can see, the issue for countries like Nigeria, South Sudan, and Angola isn’t just poor management of their oil (though that’s part of it). They also face the geographic reality that their oil reserves simply aren’t large enough to support their populations at the same level as smaller, wealthier countries like Qatar. It's really a matter of math.
Even if South Sudan uses its oil resources wisely and equitably, it would still be doing slightly better than Nigeria, worse than Angola, and nowhere near the level of Gulf countries.
very interesting perspective. have you explored extraction efficiency between these different countries? Hunch I have is export per capita gives a sense of the industry's production today, but not its productive potential.
Yea I have, South Sudan has heavy crude which required more refining and its harder to get out the ground than Saudi's crude, which you can basically pull out with a straw (I am exaggerating, but the point is its easier to pull out Saudi crude at a lower cost than compared to South Sudanese's crude).
Great and informative article! Thank you for sharing :)
One thing - the image of North Sudanese on the left and a group that is supposedly Dinka on the right, appears to be showing Masaai people and not Dinka? Or am I mistaken?
In the 1920s, Korea was a united colony under Japan called Joseon. I am not sure how Sudan being split into two countries with the north in a civil war and the South recovering from a civil war is similar to that. I must be missing something in your analogy.
Very interesting article. I had no idea about the Sudd wetland and its importance to the history of the area.
Very excited about the article on Uganda! The country has consistently been punching above its weight, and I am surprised that it is richer than Rwanda on a per-capita basis across most metrics, would like to hear how they pulled it off
Its the North Arab Sudanese Domination Period. Israel's Periphery Doctrine reminded me of The United States Containment Doctrine which led to the Korean War as Periphery seemed to fuel the Massacres in Jubit Torit Yei et al. It's probably not similar, Sudan is far larger and more ethnically diverse than Korea, it was just one of those things. Thanks for making me read more into it!
ah I see your point is America supporting South Korea is like Israel supporting South Sudan.
I think that makes sense but the timeline for the Korean war was in the 1950s. In the 1920s, Korea was still a Japanese colony.
True, I should have not written my first thought. I am wrong. Thank you.
Though, I'm curious, what do you think is the path forward for Sudan? Is it centralization under the Petro State? Or do you think it could be managed more equitably by a decentralization and total regional apparati? I don't know, being ignorant of World History. Is cohesion the true solution, is that what Sudanese want?
Did you mean to ask, "What do you think the path forward is for South Sudan?" That’s an important distinction because Sudan doesn’t have much oil left after South Sudan gained independence and took most of the oil reserves with it.
For now, Sudan’s top priority is ending its civil war, while South Sudan is facing its own challenge: making it through the December 2024 elections without major violence.
Even if South Sudan stabilizes, it doesn't export a huge amount of oil relative to its population. A good way to gauge how much oil a country really benefits from is to look at oil and gas exports per capita. Why? Take China as an example: China has the 14th largest oil reserves in the world, about the same as Qatar. But China has 1.4 billion people, which means it uses far more oil than it can produce from all its consumers and businesses, despite having a significant supply. Meanwhile, Qatar, with its small population, has massive oil surpluses because it produces much more than it can consume.
Let’s assume South Sudan fixes its pipelines and gets back to its peak oil production from 2014. Here's how South Sudan compares to other oil-exporting nations based on 2022 data:
Qatar: $87B/ 2.7M = $32.5K per person
Saudi Arabia: $242B/ 36 M = $6.8K per person
Angola: $39.4B/35.6 = $1.1K per person
South Sudan: $4.4B/11M = $400 bucks per person
Nigeria: 61B/ 220M = $277 bucks per person
Of course, this doesn’t mean each person directly gets this money. It typically goes to the treasury, central bank, or sovereign wealth funds, as these countries usually have state-run oil companies. But it gives a good sense of how well-endowed each country is in terms of oil wealth.
As you can see, the issue for countries like Nigeria, South Sudan, and Angola isn’t just poor management of their oil (though that’s part of it). They also face the geographic reality that their oil reserves simply aren’t large enough to support their populations at the same level as smaller, wealthier countries like Qatar. It's really a matter of math.
Even if South Sudan uses its oil resources wisely and equitably, it would still be doing slightly better than Nigeria, worse than Angola, and nowhere near the level of Gulf countries.
Hope that explains things!
Source for oil reserves by country: https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-reserves-by-country/
Oil data: https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/crude-petroleum
very interesting perspective. have you explored extraction efficiency between these different countries? Hunch I have is export per capita gives a sense of the industry's production today, but not its productive potential.
Yea I have, South Sudan has heavy crude which required more refining and its harder to get out the ground than Saudi's crude, which you can basically pull out with a straw (I am exaggerating, but the point is its easier to pull out Saudi crude at a lower cost than compared to South Sudanese's crude).
Then the actual humanitarian option is to eliminate petrocurrency entirely.
I appreciate the Elucidation. Thanks.
Well they'll still use oil they just have to diversify quickly because oil won't be enough.
Great and informative article! Thank you for sharing :)
One thing - the image of North Sudanese on the left and a group that is supposedly Dinka on the right, appears to be showing Masaai people and not Dinka? Or am I mistaken?
good catch, Just changed the picture. Masaai are from Kenya/Tanzania.
Why does Sudan look increasingly like a 1920s Korea?
Hey! I'm actually not sure what you mean.
In the 1920s, Korea was a united colony under Japan called Joseon. I am not sure how Sudan being split into two countries with the north in a civil war and the South recovering from a civil war is similar to that. I must be missing something in your analogy.