Namibia was an interesting experience for me, divided between difficult politics, writing a book, and falling in love with Swakopmund. They wouldn't help me but they never kicked me out. I took a walk into the desert and bumped into camels.
For me, it was a better version of South Africa. Besides druggies hanging out in one area near the waterfront, I felt safer. Most of my time there was out of season. It was quiet, probably owing to the many empty holiday homes, though most tourists I encountered were Germans. So, for sure, inequality. Whereas many want to leave South Africa, Namibians hope to live in South Africa. It wouldn't be hard to be enraptured by a Namibian woman seeking a husband as a tool to emigrate - they're mostly trim and speak well, whereas many poor South Africans are fat and stupid. I'm not being callous, an observation of reality and a difference in culture that I deeply wondered at.
The inequality factor you're not mentioning is that Namibia is deeply corrupt. Liberation doesn't end poverty, it perpetuates it, and then never takes responsibility, only blaming colonialism.
A great read before jumping into Part 2. Thanks for the economic graphs. It’s difficult to put into perspective sometimes. I read “poor or rich country”, but what does that really mean.
If the average person makes less than $1,135 a year the country is low income (examples: Burkina Faso, Yemen, and Afghanistan)
If the average person makes between $1,136 and $4,465 the country is lower-middle income (Angola, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Egypt, Jordan)
If the average person makes between $4,466 and $13,845 the country is upper-middle income
(Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa)
If the average person makes more than $13,845 a year then its a high income nation
(America, Canada, EU Countries, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Gulf States, Chile, Uruguay, Barbados).
By American standards, there are high income countries that are poor by U.S. standards - Barbados and Chile are perfect examples.
These benchmark numbers increase every year due to inflation. So if USD inflation is 3%, the bench market income for high income would be $13,845 * 1.03 = $14,260.
However, I have to complement the World Bank with the World Inequality Database. So I can look at disparity.
Do you think it's worthwhile for the government to buy land via loans and lease it out to small black farmers? At least here you do individual property rights for black farmers or do you think the same tribal ownership you see in the rest of Africa? Do you think it's possible to create a mortgage market for landless farmers?
Yea I'll get to this more in part 2 but here's what I have for now:
1) Government buying land via oil revenues: French Total and other firms found oil in Namibia, enough oil to make it sell as many barrels per year around Algeria/Nigeria/Angola. With that oil revenue it can buy out the land and lease it out to black farmers. But that won't happen until the 2030s.
2) I think it will be a 99 year government lease.
3) I think the government will just give out the land to the black Namibians at discounted rates. It wouldn't make sense to bring a mortgage market to previously landless people.
Now that the Ethiopian government has had to default on its debt, it will try to raise funds for infrastructure by selling government leased land to farmers. It should put up the savings rate as well. In the long run it will kill welfarism politics if you have a nation landowners.
1) Do you think oil prices will remain high enough until the 2030s to do that?
2) Why do this 99 year lease thing? Asset transfer would be preferable.
3) Even if you're selling land at discounted rates it would still be helpful to do mortgages. Since you work in fintech, do you see a future of mortgage markets for landless farmers in developing countries by the 2030s? What do you see the major bottlenecks for this sector to take off?
1) I am not sure what future oil prices will be but there will still be oil demand. Between 2008-2014, China's average income per person shot up from $3000 to $7500. China alone pushed up oil prices at that time after the 2008 financial crisis.
When India hits $3000 per person, which I think it will be by 2025, I can imagine India itself would be pushing up global oil and commodity prices.
I think India by itself will be sustaining oil prices for Namibia and other petrostates.
2) Namibia will probably do a 99 year lease because that's how Namibia does land ownership now.
3) I work in fintech, but my work is unrelated to mortgages in emerging markets. I would need to do more research into credit markets in places like Namibia, which I just started doing. In my current job, I just provide API transaction data for apps.
1) I doubt it. About half of oil demand in India comes from two wheelers and three wheelers. In 2022 half of three wheelers in India were electric. India is also building a lot of metro rail and dedicated freight corridors which would also repress oil demand. Not to mention the fall in demand from Western nations as they continue subsidise EVs.
3) I was thinking of doing a PhD in using fintech and satellite spectroscopy to provide crop yield insurance in emerging markets. Do you happen to know someone who works in that space?
1) We will see about whether the world or even India can truly harbor off oil. You make a good point but I think oil will still be in high demand in the future for some time. I acknowledge that there will be alternatives.
2) There's too many unknowns that I am not sure I can help you. I am not sure what degree that PHD will be in. A) I don't know of any fintech/satellite spectroscopy fusion. B) I am not sure which company does such a thing, unless you plan to raise money from investors. C) I don't know anyone in that space. Most PHDs I know at MIT are in the AI space. So like Symbolic reasoning ML systems and large language models.
I guess the terms “high and low” income might be relative to who is using them and their perception. Using those benchmarks of The World Bank at least provides a standard one can use consistently.
Upper middle income just means the average person makes between $4,466 and $13,845 a year. By Western standards, Libya is a poor country.
Libya used to be much better but since Gaddafi died the country has been plummeting. From $14K incomes per person to $7.2K, but that's still upper middle income. They still export a shit ton of oil.
Namibia was an interesting experience for me, divided between difficult politics, writing a book, and falling in love with Swakopmund. They wouldn't help me but they never kicked me out. I took a walk into the desert and bumped into camels.
For me, it was a better version of South Africa. Besides druggies hanging out in one area near the waterfront, I felt safer. Most of my time there was out of season. It was quiet, probably owing to the many empty holiday homes, though most tourists I encountered were Germans. So, for sure, inequality. Whereas many want to leave South Africa, Namibians hope to live in South Africa. It wouldn't be hard to be enraptured by a Namibian woman seeking a husband as a tool to emigrate - they're mostly trim and speak well, whereas many poor South Africans are fat and stupid. I'm not being callous, an observation of reality and a difference in culture that I deeply wondered at.
The inequality factor you're not mentioning is that Namibia is deeply corrupt. Liberation doesn't end poverty, it perpetuates it, and then never takes responsibility, only blaming colonialism.
This Al Jazeera investigation is excellent - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FJ1TB0nwHs
Great to see your writing getting more attention!
A great read before jumping into Part 2. Thanks for the economic graphs. It’s difficult to put into perspective sometimes. I read “poor or rich country”, but what does that really mean.
The World Bank has an income classifier by country here:
https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups
If the average person makes less than $1,135 a year the country is low income (examples: Burkina Faso, Yemen, and Afghanistan)
If the average person makes between $1,136 and $4,465 the country is lower-middle income (Angola, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Egypt, Jordan)
If the average person makes between $4,466 and $13,845 the country is upper-middle income
(Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa)
If the average person makes more than $13,845 a year then its a high income nation
(America, Canada, EU Countries, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Gulf States, Chile, Uruguay, Barbados).
By American standards, there are high income countries that are poor by U.S. standards - Barbados and Chile are perfect examples.
These benchmark numbers increase every year due to inflation. So if USD inflation is 3%, the bench market income for high income would be $13,845 * 1.03 = $14,260.
However, I have to complement the World Bank with the World Inequality Database. So I can look at disparity.
https://wid.world/
In countries like South Africa, Mexico, Colombia, Namibia the top 10% make over 60% of the income of the country.
In America & Russia the top 10% make 50%.
In Canada, UK, Australia the top 10% make closer to 33%.
I kid you not Yaw you’re probably my top 3 favourite writers to read in this platform. Keep it up 🙏
Great summary of history. Your articles really catch interest in African topics!
Thank you for bringing the inequality issue in. It is far too easy to stop reading with 'upper middle income'.
Do you think it's worthwhile for the government to buy land via loans and lease it out to small black farmers? At least here you do individual property rights for black farmers or do you think the same tribal ownership you see in the rest of Africa? Do you think it's possible to create a mortgage market for landless farmers?
The bigger problem is that most of the country is a desert. It cannot exist without food from South Africa.
Yea I'll get to this more in part 2 but here's what I have for now:
1) Government buying land via oil revenues: French Total and other firms found oil in Namibia, enough oil to make it sell as many barrels per year around Algeria/Nigeria/Angola. With that oil revenue it can buy out the land and lease it out to black farmers. But that won't happen until the 2030s.
2) I think it will be a 99 year government lease.
3) I think the government will just give out the land to the black Namibians at discounted rates. It wouldn't make sense to bring a mortgage market to previously landless people.
Now that the Ethiopian government has had to default on its debt, it will try to raise funds for infrastructure by selling government leased land to farmers. It should put up the savings rate as well. In the long run it will kill welfarism politics if you have a nation landowners.
1) Do you think oil prices will remain high enough until the 2030s to do that?
2) Why do this 99 year lease thing? Asset transfer would be preferable.
3) Even if you're selling land at discounted rates it would still be helpful to do mortgages. Since you work in fintech, do you see a future of mortgage markets for landless farmers in developing countries by the 2030s? What do you see the major bottlenecks for this sector to take off?
1) I am not sure what future oil prices will be but there will still be oil demand. Between 2008-2014, China's average income per person shot up from $3000 to $7500. China alone pushed up oil prices at that time after the 2008 financial crisis.
When India hits $3000 per person, which I think it will be by 2025, I can imagine India itself would be pushing up global oil and commodity prices.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN-IN
I think India by itself will be sustaining oil prices for Namibia and other petrostates.
2) Namibia will probably do a 99 year lease because that's how Namibia does land ownership now.
3) I work in fintech, but my work is unrelated to mortgages in emerging markets. I would need to do more research into credit markets in places like Namibia, which I just started doing. In my current job, I just provide API transaction data for apps.
1) I doubt it. About half of oil demand in India comes from two wheelers and three wheelers. In 2022 half of three wheelers in India were electric. India is also building a lot of metro rail and dedicated freight corridors which would also repress oil demand. Not to mention the fall in demand from Western nations as they continue subsidise EVs.
3) I was thinking of doing a PhD in using fintech and satellite spectroscopy to provide crop yield insurance in emerging markets. Do you happen to know someone who works in that space?
1) We will see about whether the world or even India can truly harbor off oil. You make a good point but I think oil will still be in high demand in the future for some time. I acknowledge that there will be alternatives.
2) There's too many unknowns that I am not sure I can help you. I am not sure what degree that PHD will be in. A) I don't know of any fintech/satellite spectroscopy fusion. B) I am not sure which company does such a thing, unless you plan to raise money from investors. C) I don't know anyone in that space. Most PHDs I know at MIT are in the AI space. So like Symbolic reasoning ML systems and large language models.
Do you happen how Namibia managed to develop an aircraft and shipbuilding industry?
I guess the terms “high and low” income might be relative to who is using them and their perception. Using those benchmarks of The World Bank at least provides a standard one can use consistently.
100%
To an American even China, Indonesia and Mexico seem like poor countries. Even though they are all upper middle income.
But to a Ghanaian, a low-mid country, China and Mexico seem rich.
That's why I love the World Bank and World Inequaltiy database. I can use it at least as a standard.
I'm surprised to see Libya as upper income in the world bank data despite the civil war that has been going on there since the Arab Spring
Upper middle income just means the average person makes between $4,466 and $13,845 a year. By Western standards, Libya is a poor country.
Libya used to be much better but since Gaddafi died the country has been plummeting. From $14K incomes per person to $7.2K, but that's still upper middle income. They still export a shit ton of oil.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD?locations=LY
i wrote about Libya here if you are interested:
https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/the-history-of-libya