A Compendium of the Economic & Geopolitical History of over 1/3 of the African Continent

Both the Cliff notes & the Long notes

Since starting my Substack in 2022, I've delved into the economic and geopolitical landscapes of 19 African nations out of the 54. This focus stems from the plethora of content discussing Africa as a monolith. Here’s some perfect examples of those “monolith” vids.

While understandable that there would be grand narratives of Africa due to shared historical narratives like colonialism and poverty, such broad coverage doesn’t “scratch the itch” for me. They are certainly good videos for people who know nothing about Africa, but at the same time, for me, these videos often show that I know more than they do. Even you are going to do a grand narrative video you should probably mention the 1980-2000 African Debt Crisis since that was 20 years of African stagnation while the world went on ahead or patronage culture fueling corruption. But much of the video often focuses on pre-independence issues instead of post-independence. To me pre-independence issues (colonialism, slavery) are still important but that only explains one side of the ledger, the other side is the post independence history (corruption of state owned enterprises, patronage culture, commodity busts creating the African Debt Crisis).

Videos like these often mask the stark disparities within the continent. You would never understand why Central African Republic lags behind Haiti in living standards, while Ivory Coast has a higher average income per person than Haiti & Central African Republic combined (all three of these states were colonized by France btw). Watching these videos won’t explain why Sierra Leone is infamous for "blood diamonds" and poverty, while Botswana enjoys stability and living standards comparable to Thailand or Brazil, thanks to its diamond industry. Watching African monolith videos don’t explain why is Ethiopia on a rapid growth trajectory to grow from low income status towards lower-middle income status despite internal conflicts. Meanwhile Chad and Congo stagnate in low-income amidst their own internal conflicts. These were the questions I was interested in answering.

Some countries are doing something right and some countries are doing something wrong, and I had no issue digging into the balance of payments numbers, huge data discrepancies, agricultural yields, trade flow, and learning about specific actions of each leaders, finance ministers, and etc. I felt that very few people were able to summarize that history or answer those questions in a readable way. So I am attempting to do that. Then when I am done, I’ll form my own big narrative. I have always disliked grand narratives, and I’ve always been a “bottoms-up” thinker. But since I am not on a timeline I have all the time in the world to travel, research, interview, and write.

Check out here if you want to see any of the articles you missed. I labeled them all by World Bank Income Rankings. By the way, the countries are classified by average incomes. By definition, the average can be affected by skewing due to income inequality. There are many countries who are labelled as “X income” despite having health standards that are lower or higher than its reported income level.

A “low income country” is where the average citizen makes less than ~$1140 a year (2024 prices). Some non-African examples include Afghanistan, North Korea, or Yemen. But most countries in this list are African countries.

A “lower-middle income country” is where the average person makes over ~$1140 a year (2024 prices) but less than ~$4500 a year. Non-African Countries at the poorer end of the spectrum include nations like Cambodia and countries at the higher end of the spectrum include Lebanon. Every South Asian country is a lower middle income country except Afghanistan which is low income. Most of these countries are still what westerners think of as “3rd world”.

"Upper-middle income countries" typically represent advanced developing countries, with average incomes ranging from ~$4500 to ~$14,000 a year. Examples include Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, China, and South Africa, representing Latin America and Southeast Asia.

"High-income countries" include first-world nations, oil-rich Gulf states, and touristy island states, where the average income exceeds ~$14,000 a year. This category encompasses relatively poorer European countries like Hungary and Romania.

If you want to read each individual article. Click on the link on the bolded, headlined nation.

High Income

#1 Seychelles: Colonized by French then the UK. Seychelles, is the only African nation that barely hits high-income status. Following the departure of its first president, it endured a rule by a European Socialist dictator who survived assassination attempts by Apartheid South Africa and the United States. Transitioning to democracy in the 1990s, it prospered through tourism, island sales to billionaires, and serving as a "flag of convenience" for international yacht firms.

Upper Middle Income:

#2 Gabon: Despite its upper-middle-income classification, corruption and inequality overshadow Gabon's status. The first President didn’t even want independence from France. Oil discovery in the late 1950s-1960s brought wealth, but the successive ruling Bongo family & his clique mainly benefited, leading to a recent coup. The new leader is also part of the Bongo family.

#3 Botswana: Avoided the slave trade and technically wasn’t colonized, but rather a British Protectorate. Initially impoverished, it found diamonds post-independence and partnered with global diamond giant De Beers. Shielded from price collapses due to De Beers' monopoly, Botswana is now an unequal, landlocked, upper-middle-income nation heavily reliant on its diminishing diamond reserves.

#4 Libya: Controlled by Turks then Italians. After WW2, Libya was governed by a British-installed King, then Gaddafi, and now this nation is now divided between factions in Tripoli and Tobruk, alongside an Islamist and secessionist issue. Gaddafi's attempts to unify the Arab world, dismantle Israel, destabilize the West, and unify Africa all failed. At least he made his populace relatively prosperous due having huge amount of oil relative to population size.

#5 Equatorial Guinea: Colonized by Spain. Equatorial Guinea is very similar to Gabon in being an unequal, corrupt petrostate. First President was an insane person who was an “Hitlerian Marxist” who killed/exiled a third of the nation. The people that stayed were virtually slaves. The nephew killed the first president, found oil in the 90s, and the country has good numbers on paper but its mainly himself, his family, and his clique that are getting richer.

#6 Namibia (Part 1 & Part 2): A country marked by severe inequality from its history with Apartheid South Africa and Germany's first genocide. Recently, it uncovered significant oil and gas reserves and is exploring becoming a green energy supplier for the European Union and Japan.

Lower Middle Income:

#7 Algeria: A petrostate that has been controlled relatively lightly by Turkey, and then harshly by France. Morocco tried to annex territory from the country and they have been in a cold war since. Had a civil war between Islamists and Secularists, and is trying to provide more gas to Europeans.

#8 Morocco: A country that has a history smashing West African empires. Spain and France carved up Moroccan land, causing its current conflicts today. Morocco probably will be much richer than it currently is over the next decade due to its level of industrialization. It infamously left the African Union and tried to join the European Union (didn’t work). It rejoined the African Union in 2017. Currently Morocco is in a proxy conflict with its neighbor Algeria, which funds the Polisario Front, an organization trying to achieve independence for Western Sahara/Southern Morocco.

#9 Ivory Coast: 1st President didn’t even want independence from France. Economy started off great during the cocoa boom then declined during the cocoa price collapse in the late 70s/early 80. South was relatively wealthy, North was poor. Successive leaders hated Northern Muslims and the country dissolved to two civil wars. The country has quickly recovered since then and finally allowed a Muslim Northerner to win.

#10 Sao Tome & Principe: An island that’s like Seychelles without the tourism, like Mauritius without the farming or offshore banking, and like Equatorial Guinea except the oil hasn’t been dug up yet. The country was late to independence due to the harsh grip of Portugal. The leaders tried communism but it wasn’t working, now they are a mixed economy but they are still struggling. Their fortunes should turn once they find oil.

#11 Angola: Country was late to independence due to Portugal not wanting to give up Angolan oil. After independence, the country immediately spiraled into a Vietnam style civil war between communists vs. anti-communists. Soviet Union, the African Union, Cuba, & Warsaw Pact supported communists while Apartheid South Africa, Congo, and United States funded the anti communists. War ended in 2002 and the communists won, the president made oil deals with China and the country got richer when oil prices were high. Unfortunately the President, dos Santos amassed most of the oil wealth thru the state owned oil firm and his family and clique got richer. The country got poorer once oil prices crashed in 2014-2015. The new president after de Santos finally tackled corruption and went after the de Santos family.

#12 Guinea: Only French Sub Saharan African colony to completely defang itself from France at independence. France made the country suffer the consequences. The leader tried unifying with Mali & Ghana and tried Soviet policies but all failed to raise living standards. After that a string of incompetent military leaders took over but incomes only recently started to rise once Chinese and Russian investment came in to their bauxite mines.

Low Income:

#13 Ethiopia (Part 1, 2, & 3): This country has had gangbusters growth ever since the country stopped communism and learned to grow food yields. By 2025, despite the many internal and external conflicts, will be a lower-middle income country. The country is over 3000 years old, defeated the Italians who tried to colonize them, expanded the country to stop Europeans from claiming more land, but got briefly occupied by the Italians during WW2. The Monarch failed to end famines and got replaced by communists who also caused famines and lost Eritrea & sea access. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front took over the country removed the communists and kickstarted growth. The country is now ruled by a non-Tigray, and the country is in many internal conflicts right now, but still growing regardless.

#14 Eritrea: A country that was historically a somewhat autonomous parcel of Ethiopia until the Somalis, Turks, Egyptians, and Italians came in. After Italy was kicked out, Ethiopians came back in until Eritrea couldn’t take it anymore. The country is an isolated military state, ruled by one person since independence in the 90s.

#15 Sierra Leone (Part 1 & 2): A colony created by Britain as a refuge for freed slaves. A diamond state that instead of forming a joint venture with De Beers, decided to nationalize the industry instead and got worse results. The country descended into civil war, and the country is still recovering.

#16 Central African Republic: A country France constantly intervened in. France even installed an alleged cannibal, and then removed him for being an idiot. The country has been in a civil war for over a decade that you never heard of and is now seeking help from Russia.

#17 Mozambique: One of the last countries to gain independence due to Portugal. The country immediately dissolved into a civil war between Soviet Union, China & African backed communists vs. American, Apartheid South African, & Rhodesian backed anti-communists. Communists won but their policies were terrible, so they switched from communism to mixed economy, but still doing terrible. Mozambique recently discovered game changing, massive reserves of natural gas in the Northeast province, but a rebel group is preventing them from extracting the gas.

#18 Democratic Republic of Congo (Part I & 2): A country rich in many natural resources with low global export demand compared to oil or gas (i.e. copper, cobalt, tin, lithium). America and Belgium destabilized the country once the 1st President took weapons from Soviet Union due to fears of Lumumba might becoming an African Fidel Castro. The opportunist Mobutu took over, nationalized industry, and raided state owned firms for himself, his family and clique. Rwanda and Uganda funded a rebel to remove Mobutu for sheltering individuals involved in the Rwandan genocide & causing border conflicts, but the installed rebel regime also sheltered genocidaires, leading to ongoing conflict and the deadly Congo Wars in the late 1990s and early 2000s, resulting in 5 million deaths. After that, Congo went on being ruled by other corrupt leaders and now it has another issue with Rwanda.

#19 Chad (Part 1 & 2): A country divided by a Muslim North majority that historically committed slave raids on the Animist South minority. The Muslim North ignored French values while the South embraced French norms and became more Christian. At independence, the Christian South won and oppressed the North, leading the North to rebel and start a civil war. Gaddafi wanted the uranium in the North and hated having a French Puppet in his backyard so he armed the North. Meanwhile, France, Egypt, Sudan, and America armed the South. Eventually, Southern rule ended and Chad kicked out Libya. But the country was still struggling until oil was discovered, leading to a decade of high economic growth until oil prices collapsed. Now rebels are still a problem and they killed the long ruling strongman in 2021. Now the strongman’s son rules the nation.

Interesting Tidbits:
1. The only high income African country, Seychelles, is barely high income and it has gotten rich in ways another African countries can’t replicate (tourism and allowing billionaires to buy islands).

2. The economic growth and decline in most of these countries is very predictable. Just look at the commodity price for the main raw material they sell. For Ivory Coast - cocoa, Chad/Angola/Algeria/Gabon/Nigeria /Equatorial Guinea - oil, Congo -copper. When its up you see growth, when its down you see issues. Until the country can learn to boost agricultural productivity, the economic growth of many of these countries is mostly commodity booms and service growth masking over an unproductive subsistence farmer population. Most African nations are still terrible at growing food and have been either depending on a resource boom, diversifying natural resource exports, and having service-led growth.

3. For many of these countries analyzed so far (Mozambique, Congo, Angola, Namibia), the dead Soviet Union seemed more of a “good guy” than USA was.

4. Some of these countries emulated some/all of Soviet style policies (government control of all prices, collectivized farming, government owned firms) and it brought black markets, terrible agriculture yields, and governments stealing from the resource state owned firms.

5. Oil is a much better resource to raise incomes with (and steal from) than cobalt.

6. Many countries did nationalize their resources from foreign powers, but that doesn’t mean much when the price of the resource depends on demand from foreigner firms. Once the West & Japan had recessions in the 1980s, resource prices plummeted and many of these countries went bankrupt. In the 1980s and 1990s, many of the countries had to privatize some of their state owned firms.