These keep delivering. For quite random, life-is-a-whirlwind reasons, I’m now joining a firm that is very focused on Middle East & Africa and your primers have been essential to not making (too much of) a fool of myself in the early days.
Libya has 2.8% of global oil reserves. With a population of just 7m, that means Libya has a higher oil reserves per capita than Norway (6m pop), which just has 0.3% of global oil reserves and a sovereign wealth fund worth US$1.7t.
No wonder Libya was one of the richest countries in Africa prior to Gaddafi's downfall, who, for all his vices, did provide a stable government for Libya.
A strong, responsible government would go a long way towards harvesting Libya's potential. They don't need any aid; they could easily be the Saudi Arabia of Africa.
1) Although Libya has more reserves than Norway, Libya wasn't able to export more oil because the UN & US banned oil firms for drilling for more oil. From 1980-2003, Conoco, Marathon, ENI, Total, BP and Amerada Hess were forced to pull out. UN sanctioned Gaddafi because supported the PLO (which were seen as terrorists at the time), the IRA, and committed the Lockerbie bombing. As a result, under that sanctions era from 1980-2003, Gaddafi's Libya never exported more than $11B. At that same period, Norway was exported $40B. So Gaddafi's geopolitical stances prevented his country from becoming more like Norway. Between 1980-2003, Libya’s oil infrastructure was often mismanaged and underdeveloped, leading to inefficiencies. But its mismanagement was still better than basically all other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Gaddafi wasn't able to get western investment until he started paying compensation for the victims he killed and allowed the West to dismantle his nuclear program after the early 2000s. They could have definitely been a Norway if it wasn't for the Arab Spring.
2) Even today, with Libya divided between the Government of National Unity in the West and Haftar in the East, Libya is far richer than most African countries. Libya has fallen from its peak, but its still richer than Morocco, which is basically richer than most Sub-Saharan countries except South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia. Libya isn't in an all out war right now, just a stalemate and occasional militia and tribal clashes. Tripoli, Benghazi, and Misrata are somewhat functioning and people can go to work, while the South is lawless. Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) is still operational and exported over $30B of oil and gas in 2023:
3) I wouldn't even call Gaddafi providing a stable government. Remember, after the Arab Spring kick started in Tunisia, the Libyan Civil war started before the NATO & Arab League's intervention.
4) I agree Libya doesn't need aid, they just need a winner between the Turkey & Qatar backed GNU vs. the UAE & Egypt backed Haftar. Then once the geopolitics is settled, they can get the FDI they need in their oil to become a Norway.
Can always rely on your encyclopedic knowledge of Africa, Yaw.
Definitely surprised Libya is richer than Morocco. The GNU/GNS ceasefire agreement in 2020 is still ongoing. I guess everyone is better off making money hand over fist from selling oil rather than fighting each other.
Fantastic Work 👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
Thanks for the tip. Always looking for books on emerging markets/finance/research.
These keep delivering. For quite random, life-is-a-whirlwind reasons, I’m now joining a firm that is very focused on Middle East & Africa and your primers have been essential to not making (too much of) a fool of myself in the early days.
Wow that's amazing! Glad I could be of help! It would be cool to learn what issues you avoided!
Libya has 2.8% of global oil reserves. With a population of just 7m, that means Libya has a higher oil reserves per capita than Norway (6m pop), which just has 0.3% of global oil reserves and a sovereign wealth fund worth US$1.7t.
No wonder Libya was one of the richest countries in Africa prior to Gaddafi's downfall, who, for all his vices, did provide a stable government for Libya.
A strong, responsible government would go a long way towards harvesting Libya's potential. They don't need any aid; they could easily be the Saudi Arabia of Africa.
A couple things to add:
1) Although Libya has more reserves than Norway, Libya wasn't able to export more oil because the UN & US banned oil firms for drilling for more oil. From 1980-2003, Conoco, Marathon, ENI, Total, BP and Amerada Hess were forced to pull out. UN sanctioned Gaddafi because supported the PLO (which were seen as terrorists at the time), the IRA, and committed the Lockerbie bombing. As a result, under that sanctions era from 1980-2003, Gaddafi's Libya never exported more than $11B. At that same period, Norway was exported $40B. So Gaddafi's geopolitical stances prevented his country from becoming more like Norway. Between 1980-2003, Libya’s oil infrastructure was often mismanaged and underdeveloped, leading to inefficiencies. But its mismanagement was still better than basically all other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Source for numbers: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/lby?yearSelector1=2003
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/nor?yearSelector1=2003
Gaddafi wasn't able to get western investment until he started paying compensation for the victims he killed and allowed the West to dismantle his nuclear program after the early 2000s. They could have definitely been a Norway if it wasn't for the Arab Spring.
2) Even today, with Libya divided between the Government of National Unity in the West and Haftar in the East, Libya is far richer than most African countries. Libya has fallen from its peak, but its still richer than Morocco, which is basically richer than most Sub-Saharan countries except South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia. Libya isn't in an all out war right now, just a stalemate and occasional militia and tribal clashes. Tripoli, Benghazi, and Misrata are somewhat functioning and people can go to work, while the South is lawless. Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) is still operational and exported over $30B of oil and gas in 2023:
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/lby?yearSelector1=2023
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=line&time=latest&country=LBY~BWA~ZAF~GAB~GNQ~MAR~TUN~EGY~DZA~MRT
3) I wouldn't even call Gaddafi providing a stable government. Remember, after the Arab Spring kick started in Tunisia, the Libyan Civil war started before the NATO & Arab League's intervention.
4) I agree Libya doesn't need aid, they just need a winner between the Turkey & Qatar backed GNU vs. the UAE & Egypt backed Haftar. Then once the geopolitics is settled, they can get the FDI they need in their oil to become a Norway.
Can always rely on your encyclopedic knowledge of Africa, Yaw.
Definitely surprised Libya is richer than Morocco. The GNU/GNS ceasefire agreement in 2020 is still ongoing. I guess everyone is better off making money hand over fist from selling oil rather than fighting each other.