Russia in the 1990s was probably the greatest economic and societal collapse of a sizable nation in the modern era. The collapse was far bigger than the Great Depression and it happened during a time when virtually every Russian had a recent memory of being a respected and feared superpower.
With hindsight, I am not sure that there was a strategy that had a high chance of avoiding this outcome.
The Soviet economy was so command-driven and there were no people who had a living memory of anything else. No one other than black marketeers had any idea how to run a business. In Eastern Europe older people still had some knowledge of how markets worked and the Soviet occupation never had real moral legitimacy.
Also the Soviet economy was largely based on military production that was no longer needed, and as you stated the massive oil, gas and minerals made it easy for political leaders to scoop up soon-to-be valuable natural resources. Plus oil prices were very low in the 1990s, so there was little revenue there.
China does not offer a model as it was largely an agricultural economy. Farmers know how to farm, if you just leave them alone. The Soviet economy was an industrial economy and that industry was largely not sustainable.
And any Western aid would have been wasted. Western experts had no better idea how to transform a Communist economy into a capitalist economy than the Russian people. Nothing like it had ever happened.
"In the 1980s, collapsing oil prices dealt a severe blow to the Soviet Union, which heavily depended on oil exports." This explains why the Obama admin thought they could destroy Russia by crashing oil prices in 2014
Africa is a big continent, where different countries have different geopolitics(Morocco vs Algeria, Ethiopia vs Egypt, Ivory Coast vs Burkina Faso) with different levels of internet access across countries. There are many Africans who have never even given thought to this before or wouldn't care even if he were.
Frankly even in America, there are tens of millions of Americans who completely disagree on whether Trump was a Russia agent.
Thank you, Yaw. I just found out about it. Yes, I know how large Africa is. And the voters certainly are unaware (give them time). Still, there might be something in the literature that indicates knowledge or opinions, especially with Russian activities especially in the Sahel. I wish I could afford to subscribe and appreciate your reports. Jill
From surveys it seems that some African countries think that Russia is the aggressor, but Russia and Ukraine are victims of this war. From what I have seen across the young educated, activist political class in countries like Ghana, Togo, and Ivory Coast, some think that America forced Russia to invade Ukraine to stop it from joining NATO. That's where I would get the logic that "Russia and Ukraine are both victims"
I can say for certain that there's a really loud group of political elites in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Central African Republic, Eritrea and increasingly Equatorial Guinea & Algeria are categorically anti-Western/pro-Russia.
Great article, I also did an assignment on Russian oligarchs (just extended it to today) and came up with similar conclusions. However, I will disagree with the definition of the oligarch; an oligarch for me is a wealthy individual who is tied to a government, as at least shown in Moscow. Considering that in DC we see similar phenomena; big business lobbying for friendly regulations, corporations spending unlimited amounts to influence election results, and an increasing gap between the rich and the poor, I would argue the States are indeed an oligarchy to an extent. And I am not saying every US tycoon is an oligarch like not every Russian businessman is an oligarch (there are many of them living in Cyprus after 2022 for instance), I am only explaining that many US billionaires aren’t different from their Russian counterparts (Musk could be also viewed as a recent example).
Plus many of the Russian oligarchs were either former Communist apparatchiki or former KGB like Putin. There is no comparison to billionaires in the West who made their money via innovation and market transactions.
Nice overview of a terrible saga.
Russia in the 1990s was probably the greatest economic and societal collapse of a sizable nation in the modern era. The collapse was far bigger than the Great Depression and it happened during a time when virtually every Russian had a recent memory of being a respected and feared superpower.
With hindsight, I am not sure that there was a strategy that had a high chance of avoiding this outcome.
The Soviet economy was so command-driven and there were no people who had a living memory of anything else. No one other than black marketeers had any idea how to run a business. In Eastern Europe older people still had some knowledge of how markets worked and the Soviet occupation never had real moral legitimacy.
Also the Soviet economy was largely based on military production that was no longer needed, and as you stated the massive oil, gas and minerals made it easy for political leaders to scoop up soon-to-be valuable natural resources. Plus oil prices were very low in the 1990s, so there was little revenue there.
China does not offer a model as it was largely an agricultural economy. Farmers know how to farm, if you just leave them alone. The Soviet economy was an industrial economy and that industry was largely not sustainable.
And any Western aid would have been wasted. Western experts had no better idea how to transform a Communist economy into a capitalist economy than the Russian people. Nothing like it had ever happened.
Sadly, I just don’t see an alternative outcome.
"In the 1980s, collapsing oil prices dealt a severe blow to the Soviet Union, which heavily depended on oil exports." This explains why the Obama admin thought they could destroy Russia by crashing oil prices in 2014
Question: Is it known in Africa that Donald J. Trump is a Russian agent?
Africa is a big continent, where different countries have different geopolitics(Morocco vs Algeria, Ethiopia vs Egypt, Ivory Coast vs Burkina Faso) with different levels of internet access across countries. There are many Africans who have never even given thought to this before or wouldn't care even if he were.
Frankly even in America, there are tens of millions of Americans who completely disagree on whether Trump was a Russia agent.
Thank you, Yaw. I just found out about it. Yes, I know how large Africa is. And the voters certainly are unaware (give them time). Still, there might be something in the literature that indicates knowledge or opinions, especially with Russian activities especially in the Sahel. I wish I could afford to subscribe and appreciate your reports. Jill
Here's some interesting literature on how African countries view Russia:
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-06/IpsosSSA_June%202023%20PEACE%20UKRAINE.pdf
From surveys it seems that some African countries think that Russia is the aggressor, but Russia and Ukraine are victims of this war. From what I have seen across the young educated, activist political class in countries like Ghana, Togo, and Ivory Coast, some think that America forced Russia to invade Ukraine to stop it from joining NATO. That's where I would get the logic that "Russia and Ukraine are both victims"
I can say for certain that there's a really loud group of political elites in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Central African Republic, Eritrea and increasingly Equatorial Guinea & Algeria are categorically anti-Western/pro-Russia.
Great article, I also did an assignment on Russian oligarchs (just extended it to today) and came up with similar conclusions. However, I will disagree with the definition of the oligarch; an oligarch for me is a wealthy individual who is tied to a government, as at least shown in Moscow. Considering that in DC we see similar phenomena; big business lobbying for friendly regulations, corporations spending unlimited amounts to influence election results, and an increasing gap between the rich and the poor, I would argue the States are indeed an oligarchy to an extent. And I am not saying every US tycoon is an oligarch like not every Russian businessman is an oligarch (there are many of them living in Cyprus after 2022 for instance), I am only explaining that many US billionaires aren’t different from their Russian counterparts (Musk could be also viewed as a recent example).
Another great reminder is Larry Fink’s recent remarks that the election outcomes don’t matter: https://www.businessinsider.com/larry-fink-us-election-no-impact-markets-long-term-2024-10
Plus many of the Russian oligarchs were either former Communist apparatchiki or former KGB like Putin. There is no comparison to billionaires in the West who made their money via innovation and market transactions.