Deng got one thing right: that China had to reform. But he had no idea how, and he was too old. He basically just said: tried it, and chose to rely on young generations to pull it off. Hu Yaobang was part of the revolutionary generation (he was a kid on the long March), his main credit was rehabilitating old cadres and encouraging free discussion; Zhao Ziyang also belonged to this generation. He was more like a Chinese Gorbachev, looking good to the outside, but essentially not able to make the tough decision at the right moment; Li Peng, nobody liked him; Jiang Zemin, a jovial No.1, very flexibly-minded, he set the stage and delegated authority of economy to the guy, Zhu Rongji, who in my mind ranked almost at the same level as Deng in terms of historical importance, and was one of the maybe Top 5 great reformers in the long history of entire China. (Bear in mind, a successful reform is hard for this nation. Things usually ended up in violent collapses and revolutions)
Thanks, that’s interesting. S Korea also borrowed from the IMF. I assume they implemented all the IMF reforms and turned out to do OK? That said, perhaps there is a legitimate issue about whether S Korea could have recovered with less pain to its most vulnerable population if they made more gradual reforms.
I think another “model” is Malaysia (where I am at now) which went against IMF and imposed capital controls. I understand even the IMF today acknowledges that Malaysia did the right thing! 😀
When Bangladesh went to the IMF in 2022/23 for a 4.5 billion dollar loan, I think Hasina has a similar strategy to Deng. Borrow money as a buffer to last till the election and then she can use the IMF to push some deregulation and tax reforms. I guess that didn't work out for her.
With the benefit of insight I she should have just let herself lose the 2024 election. Force the BNP to do the IMF reforms and come back to power in 2029 with the nostalgia for the 2010s.
Rather than "socialist market economy" I always refer to and think of China as a fascist economy, as the parallels with the overall structural dynamics of the German economy in the 30s are often very close.
China's rise and rise after Mao's (welcome) death proves once again: their communists are a lot smarter than our communists!
Great work. I also recommend a deep reading of Zhu Rongji. If Deng was the “architect” of gaige kaifang, the Zhu was its true engineer.
I am glad you approve! Thanks for the tip, I'll definitely read on Zhu Rongji!
Deng got one thing right: that China had to reform. But he had no idea how, and he was too old. He basically just said: tried it, and chose to rely on young generations to pull it off. Hu Yaobang was part of the revolutionary generation (he was a kid on the long March), his main credit was rehabilitating old cadres and encouraging free discussion; Zhao Ziyang also belonged to this generation. He was more like a Chinese Gorbachev, looking good to the outside, but essentially not able to make the tough decision at the right moment; Li Peng, nobody liked him; Jiang Zemin, a jovial No.1, very flexibly-minded, he set the stage and delegated authority of economy to the guy, Zhu Rongji, who in my mind ranked almost at the same level as Deng in terms of historical importance, and was one of the maybe Top 5 great reformers in the long history of entire China. (Bear in mind, a successful reform is hard for this nation. Things usually ended up in violent collapses and revolutions)
Thanks, that’s interesting. S Korea also borrowed from the IMF. I assume they implemented all the IMF reforms and turned out to do OK? That said, perhaps there is a legitimate issue about whether S Korea could have recovered with less pain to its most vulnerable population if they made more gradual reforms.
I think another “model” is Malaysia (where I am at now) which went against IMF and imposed capital controls. I understand even the IMF today acknowledges that Malaysia did the right thing! 😀
South korea has been borrowing from the imf for a while.
Here's a history of their loans
https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/extarr2.aspx?memberKey1=550&date1key=2020-04-30
The last loan they borrowed was during the Asian financial crisis.
The south Korean imf history Iis very unique and deserves its own article@
When Bangladesh went to the IMF in 2022/23 for a 4.5 billion dollar loan, I think Hasina has a similar strategy to Deng. Borrow money as a buffer to last till the election and then she can use the IMF to push some deregulation and tax reforms. I guess that didn't work out for her.
With the benefit of insight I she should have just let herself lose the 2024 election. Force the BNP to do the IMF reforms and come back to power in 2029 with the nostalgia for the 2010s.
Thanks for this great piece and to Robert for the additional comments.
What a great article.
Rather than "socialist market economy" I always refer to and think of China as a fascist economy, as the parallels with the overall structural dynamics of the German economy in the 30s are often very close.
China's rise and rise after Mao's (welcome) death proves once again: their communists are a lot smarter than our communists!