Yaw, I read about Rwanda's economic progress with interest, but didn't find anything about rice culture, which I read elsewhere was very successful. Although services and minerals from whatever source are useful, food sources will be most important in a world whose financial viability isn't assured. Fine report though.
Your output is pretty incredible. I have enjoyed reading your pieces on Rwanda and Uganda. I look forward to catch up on other articles. What is your process like? 80% research, 20% writing?
For this Rwanda series I have been working on it since 2022 in terms of interviews, but the 4 books I read were much more recent. After 2014, I have to look at more articles since the books typically stop around then.
30% Interviews with individuals in the country-from business men, locals, politicians if I can grab a hold of them, and more (over months or years), 40% multiple books and research, 20% thought organization & storytelling, 10% writing.
I tend to be a bit suspicious of the narrative of Rwanda exploiting DRC's mineral ressources for a few reasons :
- it would be weird if whatever geological formation were behind deposits in the Kivus perfectly lined up with the current state borders
- and indeed, Rwanda had a small mining industry long before the Congo wars. It was in the world top 20 in 1980 then it collapsed in the late 80's.
- most available data on exports (like oec) starts in 1995 which must be a very low point for Rwanda's mining as we all know what happened in 1994.
- I have yet to read anything directly proving that Rwanda did not grow its (real) mining industry in the 2000's thanks to stability and better management.
- I also do believe that the mining industry in the Kivus is probably producing well bellow its potential because of the security situation.
- And there is probably something to be said about DRC's state capacity and its ability to control its borders and economic flows. And something to be said about the Kinshasa-centric view on natural ressources mined thousands of miles away.
Now, it would be quite naive to believe that no smuggling takes place : after all, the eastern neighboring countries are the only exits for Eastern DRC minerals.
And it would be naive to think that this all happens without involvement of the rebel groups and/or their patrons.
But still, I'm not convinced it's really that systematic and important.
3. For this article I spoke to several (good faith) Congolese and Rwandans. Frankly their narratives are irreconcilable. What I tried doing was incorporating both of them, the UN data, export data, and I always mentioned that Rwanda denies the claims that Congo & the UN are saying. I tried my best to be neutral and not pick a side. Congolese really do believe that Rwanda funds M23 (which the UN believes as well). Rwandans really think the Congolese always use a scapegoat, and that they should stop saying genocidal rhetoric towards the Banyamulenge. They'll say that "the Congolese minority they hate
may speak Kinyarwanda, but that does not make them a citizen of Rwanda, and the Congolese know that since they keep granting and revoking their citizenship."
4. I am not sure what proof you are looking for but the Congolese Certification of Expert Evaluation Center (CEEC) says Uganda and Rwanda mainly smuggle Congolese gold, but maybe they are just scapegoating.
5. I completely agree that Congo has horrific state capacity. The fact that Congo officially sells less in some minerals than Uganda/Tanzania/Burundi/Rwanda is sad on their part.
1. Yes, sure. But that was during the second Congo war. As far as I know M23 (and other more recent groups) never gained anything close to RCD territorial control.
2. There was a word missing in my sentence. My claim was about Tin.
And this document does say mention the collapse of mining somewhere during the 80's
"The mining sector, which had provided about 15 percent of exports,
collapsed in the second half of the eighties and mining exports have
virtually disappeared".
3. I'm absolutely not questioning your good faith or implying that the whole issue is not extremely complicated.
Both narrative can also be irreconcilable AND true at the same time.
4. My point was not to deny smuggling happens. It obviously does, and geography explains why it happens in that direction (and not through Angola or RoC for instance).
However, what I do question is the idea that Rwanda has not "legitimate" mining at all
and how much the smuggling is facilitated by the rebel operations (and not simply by being a functioning neighbor).
Fantastic article as usual Yaw, thanks for sharing.
Very interesting. Thank you. This is why I love Substack!
Absolutely brilliant. The flow of this four-part series is impressive.
Thanks! I appreciate it!
Great read
Fantastic series!
Yaw, I read about Rwanda's economic progress with interest, but didn't find anything about rice culture, which I read elsewhere was very successful. Although services and minerals from whatever source are useful, food sources will be most important in a world whose financial viability isn't assured. Fine report though.
Ah! I should have written about that. I'll put that in my future article on African agriculture.
Your output is pretty incredible. I have enjoyed reading your pieces on Rwanda and Uganda. I look forward to catch up on other articles. What is your process like? 80% research, 20% writing?
For this Rwanda series I have been working on it since 2022 in terms of interviews, but the 4 books I read were much more recent. After 2014, I have to look at more articles since the books typically stop around then.
30% Interviews with individuals in the country-from business men, locals, politicians if I can grab a hold of them, and more (over months or years), 40% multiple books and research, 20% thought organization & storytelling, 10% writing.
I tend to be a bit suspicious of the narrative of Rwanda exploiting DRC's mineral ressources for a few reasons :
- it would be weird if whatever geological formation were behind deposits in the Kivus perfectly lined up with the current state borders
- and indeed, Rwanda had a small mining industry long before the Congo wars. It was in the world top 20 in 1980 then it collapsed in the late 80's.
- most available data on exports (like oec) starts in 1995 which must be a very low point for Rwanda's mining as we all know what happened in 1994.
- I have yet to read anything directly proving that Rwanda did not grow its (real) mining industry in the 2000's thanks to stability and better management.
- I also do believe that the mining industry in the Kivus is probably producing well bellow its potential because of the security situation.
- And there is probably something to be said about DRC's state capacity and its ability to control its borders and economic flows. And something to be said about the Kinshasa-centric view on natural ressources mined thousands of miles away.
Now, it would be quite naive to believe that no smuggling takes place : after all, the eastern neighboring countries are the only exits for Eastern DRC minerals.
And it would be naive to think that this all happens without involvement of the rebel groups and/or their patrons.
But still, I'm not convinced it's really that systematic and important.
Hi SeuBongo,
1. For your first point, remember they are not always in Kivu. Rwanda and Uganda were trading diamonds in Kisangani.
2. I am skeptical of the claim that at any time Rwanda was in the top 20 for mining.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD?locations=RW
Rwanda's total exports peak pre-genocide was in 1986 at $244M, and during that time over half of its exports was coffee.
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/356581468305668898/pdf/multi-page.pdf
3. For this article I spoke to several (good faith) Congolese and Rwandans. Frankly their narratives are irreconcilable. What I tried doing was incorporating both of them, the UN data, export data, and I always mentioned that Rwanda denies the claims that Congo & the UN are saying. I tried my best to be neutral and not pick a side. Congolese really do believe that Rwanda funds M23 (which the UN believes as well). Rwandans really think the Congolese always use a scapegoat, and that they should stop saying genocidal rhetoric towards the Banyamulenge. They'll say that "the Congolese minority they hate
may speak Kinyarwanda, but that does not make them a citizen of Rwanda, and the Congolese know that since they keep granting and revoking their citizenship."
4. I am not sure what proof you are looking for but the Congolese Certification of Expert Evaluation Center (CEEC) says Uganda and Rwanda mainly smuggle Congolese gold, but maybe they are just scapegoating.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/gold-africa-smuggling/
5. I completely agree that Congo has horrific state capacity. The fact that Congo officially sells less in some minerals than Uganda/Tanzania/Burundi/Rwanda is sad on their part.
1. Yes, sure. But that was during the second Congo war. As far as I know M23 (and other more recent groups) never gained anything close to RCD territorial control.
2. There was a word missing in my sentence. My claim was about Tin.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1990/0930j/report.pdf
And this document does say mention the collapse of mining somewhere during the 80's
"The mining sector, which had provided about 15 percent of exports,
collapsed in the second half of the eighties and mining exports have
virtually disappeared".
3. I'm absolutely not questioning your good faith or implying that the whole issue is not extremely complicated.
Both narrative can also be irreconcilable AND true at the same time.
4. My point was not to deny smuggling happens. It obviously does, and geography explains why it happens in that direction (and not through Angola or RoC for instance).
However, what I do question is the idea that Rwanda has not "legitimate" mining at all
and how much the smuggling is facilitated by the rebel operations (and not simply by being a functioning neighbor).