Thanks for the series, great posts. It sadly does show how geography is destiny. Many of the things happening to Tunisia - former colonization by France, tourism, migration crisis - would not have happened if the country wasn't in the place it is in. Its history is very similar to Algeria's, which I've studied. Luckily unlike both neighbors, as you emphasize, Tunisia avoided devastating civil wars.
I don't think the steel push is going to do anything, but waste a billion dollars or two. Steel never produces many jobs. It's more symptomatic of big push industrialization efforts by autocrats that failed elsewhere, most notably next door at Annaba Steel Works - the Algerians tried the same fourty years ago. Beyond tourism (El Jem, Dougga Amphiteater and Djerba are gorgeous!), the country's future might be (solar) energy, I think. That said, solar takes a long time to pay off (never good in a country in a violent neighbourhood) even if it's just 5-6 years at this point with the sun and cheap land they have. And energy projects don't produce many jobs either, just more money for extractive elites. Educating the populace seems to be tough too from the country's standpoint, since the best and brightest people will likely move north after their studies. Maybe creating a free city full of light manufacturing sweatshops would be the way out, especially with all the sub-saharan labor they have? OTOH native Tunisians are probably too rich and pampered by government wages already to want to work for little money in tiresome factory settings.
Thanks for the series, great posts. It sadly does show how geography is destiny. Many of the things happening to Tunisia - former colonization by France, tourism, migration crisis - would not have happened if the country wasn't in the place it is in. Its history is very similar to Algeria's, which I've studied. Luckily unlike both neighbors, as you emphasize, Tunisia avoided devastating civil wars.
I don't think the steel push is going to do anything, but waste a billion dollars or two. Steel never produces many jobs. It's more symptomatic of big push industrialization efforts by autocrats that failed elsewhere, most notably next door at Annaba Steel Works - the Algerians tried the same fourty years ago. Beyond tourism (El Jem, Dougga Amphiteater and Djerba are gorgeous!), the country's future might be (solar) energy, I think. That said, solar takes a long time to pay off (never good in a country in a violent neighbourhood) even if it's just 5-6 years at this point with the sun and cheap land they have. And energy projects don't produce many jobs either, just more money for extractive elites. Educating the populace seems to be tough too from the country's standpoint, since the best and brightest people will likely move north after their studies. Maybe creating a free city full of light manufacturing sweatshops would be the way out, especially with all the sub-saharan labor they have? OTOH native Tunisians are probably too rich and pampered by government wages already to want to work for little money in tiresome factory settings.