This is a very interesting essay. I’ve always wondered how many of these small countries we can’t find on a map exist economically. It seems as though they exist as tennis balls bouncing between larger spheres of influence depending upon what sort of resources could be pilfered. I appreciate you getting into the details.
Equatorial Guinea depends most of its government revenue and foreign exchange on oil.
Without it, the country will have a Venezuela style collapse which it is already experiencing. It hasn't done a great job of diversifying like UAE has(where Dubai ran out of oil a while ago). Equatorial Guinea's second highest money raiser is natural gas, which it is trying to lean more on.
I wouldn't be surprised if the country had a coup like Gabon did, which is a very similar unequal petro-state that is upper-middle income on paper, but deeply unequal. But many coups have been tried on the Nguema family and the only one that worked is when the coup came from within the family. (Gabon's recent coup this year was also within the family).
Current President Obiang wants to transfer power to his eldest Son Teodorin , who has been arrested and had assets confiscated many times in Europe (luxury cars, mansions, etc.). There will probably be a sham election where Teodorin wins.
This is a very interesting essay. I’ve always wondered how many of these small countries we can’t find on a map exist economically. It seems as though they exist as tennis balls bouncing between larger spheres of influence depending upon what sort of resources could be pilfered. I appreciate you getting into the details.
Equatorial Guinea depends most of its government revenue and foreign exchange on oil.
Without it, the country will have a Venezuela style collapse which it is already experiencing. It hasn't done a great job of diversifying like UAE has(where Dubai ran out of oil a while ago). Equatorial Guinea's second highest money raiser is natural gas, which it is trying to lean more on.
I wouldn't be surprised if the country had a coup like Gabon did, which is a very similar unequal petro-state that is upper-middle income on paper, but deeply unequal. But many coups have been tried on the Nguema family and the only one that worked is when the coup came from within the family. (Gabon's recent coup this year was also within the family).
Current President Obiang wants to transfer power to his eldest Son Teodorin , who has been arrested and had assets confiscated many times in Europe (luxury cars, mansions, etc.). There will probably be a sham election where Teodorin wins.